Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 34.582484 38.960933 44.087971 50.647563 58.992529 69.519001 84.275797
2025-05-18 28.076423 33.306933 40.024611 49.650765 63.808308 85.319036 124.335460
2025-05-25 24.309561 29.928643 37.659573 49.793599 70.084101 107.288650 200.177651
2025-06-01 21.538124 27.231715 35.472652 49.361048 75.260379 132.201357 343.544250
2025-06-08 19.453764 25.098060 33.595028 48.766189 79.876329 161.687703 684.290375
2025-06-15 17.839350 23.388250 32.011619 48.174692 84.259404 198.037319 2005.302521
2025-06-22 16.606873 22.078669 30.823995 47.957097 89.477039 249.342149 563800.907399
2025-06-29 15.456997 20.757718 29.404499 46.915288 92.183468 300.770614 NaN
2025-07-06 15.036049 20.532529 29.812217 49.718311 107.717235 509.165900 NaN
2025-07-13 14.214969 19.569353 28.763216 49.069257 112.183663 690.455334 NaN
2025-07-20 13.615851 18.916686 28.195239 49.395751 120.705781 1136.129129 NaN
2025-07-27 13.111676 18.377231 27.767813 49.961407 131.083985 2426.067379 NaN
2025-08-03 12.588551 17.775032 27.172269 50.041605 140.251819 8487.065113 NaN
2025-08-10 12.036475 17.083699 26.331238 49.313831 145.310067 415768.538830 NaN
2025-08-17 11.627583 16.614298 25.884782 49.574659 156.717971 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.200212 16.082775 25.257940 49.201292 164.534732 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.793956 15.563510 24.607862 48.635683 171.042146 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.420229 15.080924 23.992002 48.058918 177.415190 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.103775 14.684236 23.523430 47.847894 187.166543 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.749838 14.200444 22.830325 46.812584 188.975429 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.689082 14.251466 23.295023 49.606641 235.043491 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.401388 13.863625 22.759680 48.960616 243.070260 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.193494 13.615293 22.516668 49.286217 266.174219 NaN NaN